長期持有ETF? 先問你能承受多少的Maximum Drawdown!(四)
表五: MSCI WORLD自1969年12月底所發生的超過10%的最大耗損歷史紀錄
投資起始日
|
發生最大耗損日
|
投資起始日指數水準
|
發生最大耗損日指數水準
|
報酬率
|
1969/12/31
|
1970/6/30
|
100.00
|
81.39
|
-18.61%
|
1970/1/30
|
1970/6/30
|
94.53
|
81.39
|
-13.90%
|
1970/2/27
|
1970/6/30
|
97.56
|
81.39
|
-16.57%
|
1970/3/31
|
1970/6/30
|
97.95
|
81.39
|
-16.91%
|
1970/12/31
|
1974/9/30
|
98.02
|
87.80
|
-10.43%
|
1971/1/29
|
1974/9/30
|
102.62
|
87.80
|
-14.44%
|
1971/2/26
|
1974/9/30
|
103.79
|
87.80
|
-15.41%
|
1971/3/31
|
1974/9/30
|
108.44
|
87.80
|
-19.03%
|
1971/4/30
|
1974/9/30
|
112.07
|
87.80
|
-21.66%
|
1971/5/31
|
1974/9/30
|
109.50
|
87.80
|
-19.82%
|
1971/6/30
|
1974/9/30
|
110.70
|
87.80
|
-20.69%
|
1971/7/30
|
1974/9/30
|
109.02
|
87.80
|
-19.47%
|
1971/8/31
|
1974/9/30
|
111.49
|
87.80
|
-21.25%
|
1971/9/30
|
1974/9/30
|
110.52
|
87.80
|
-20.56%
|
1971/10/29
|
1974/9/30
|
106.43
|
87.80
|
-17.51%
|
1971/11/30
|
1974/9/30
|
107.43
|
87.80
|
-18.27%
|
1971/12/31
|
1974/9/30
|
117.19
|
87.80
|
-25.08%
|
1972/1/31
|
1974/9/30
|
121.58
|
87.80
|
-27.79%
|
1972/2/29
|
1974/9/30
|
126.35
|
87.80
|
-30.52%
|
1972/3/31
|
1974/9/30
|
128.20
|
87.80
|
-31.51%
|
1972/4/28
|
1974/9/30
|
129.99
|
87.80
|
-32.46%
|
1972/5/31
|
1974/9/30
|
132.73
|
87.80
|
-33.85%
|
1972/6/30
|
1974/9/30
|
129.74
|
87.80
|
-32.33%
|
1972/7/31
|
1974/9/30
|
131.85
|
87.80
|
-33.41%
|
1972/8/31
|
1974/9/30
|
135.69
|
87.80
|
-35.30%
|
1972/9/29
|
1974/9/30
|
133.72
|
87.80
|
-34.34%
|
1972/10/31
|
1974/9/30
|
134.92
|
87.80
|
-34.93%
|
1972/11/30
|
1974/9/30
|
142.09
|
87.80
|
-38.21%
|
1972/12/29
|
1974/9/30
|
144.79
|
87.80
|
-39.36%
|
1973/1/31
|
1974/9/30
|
145.23
|
87.80
|
-39.54%
|
1973/2/28
|
1974/9/30
|
146.32
|
87.80
|
-40.00%
|
1973/3/30
|
1974/9/30
|
146.62
|
87.80
|
-40.12%
|
1973/4/30
|
1974/9/30
|
139.33
|
87.80
|
-36.99%
|
1973/5/31
|
1974/9/30
|
139.01
|
87.80
|
-36.84%
|
1973/6/29
|
1974/9/30
|
139.98
|
87.80
|
-37.28%
|
1973/7/31
|
1974/9/30
|
143.42
|
87.80
|
-38.78%
|
1973/8/31
|
1974/9/30
|
137.56
|
87.80
|
-36.18%
|
1973/9/28
|
1974/9/30
|
141.64
|
87.80
|
-38.01%
|
1973/10/31
|
1974/9/30
|
143.17
|
87.80
|
-38.68%
|
1973/11/30
|
1974/9/30
|
124.71
|
87.80
|
-29.60%
|
1973/12/31
|
1974/9/30
|
123.79
|
87.80
|
-29.07%
|
1974/1/31
|
1974/9/30
|
124.84
|
87.80
|
-29.67%
|
1974/2/28
|
1974/9/30
|
126.89
|
87.80
|
-30.81%
|
1974/3/29
|
1974/9/30
|
123.80
|
87.80
|
-29.08%
|
1974/4/30
|
1974/9/30
|
121.85
|
87.80
|
-27.95%
|
1974/5/31
|
1974/9/30
|
117.06
|
87.80
|
-25.00%
|
1974/6/28
|
1974/9/30
|
113.49
|
87.80
|
-22.64%
|
1974/7/31
|
1974/9/30
|
106.89
|
87.80
|
-17.86%
|
1975/6/30
|
1975/9/30
|
127.58
|
114.06
|
-10.60%
|
1980/1/31
|
1980/3/31
|
207.99
|
186.16
|
-10.49%
|
1980/2/29
|
1980/3/31
|
208.34
|
186.16
|
-10.64%
|
1980/9/30
|
1982/7/30
|
237.83
|
211.57
|
-11.04%
|
1980/10/31
|
1982/7/30
|
245.04
|
211.57
|
-13.66%
|
1980/11/28
|
1982/7/30
|
255.56
|
211.57
|
-17.22%
|
1980/12/31
|
1982/7/30
|
250.27
|
211.57
|
-15.46%
|
1981/1/30
|
1982/7/30
|
243.28
|
211.57
|
-13.04%
|
1981/2/27
|
1982/7/30
|
244.28
|
211.57
|
-13.39%
|
1981/3/31
|
1982/7/30
|
253.26
|
211.57
|
-16.46%
|
1981/4/30
|
1982/7/30
|
253.65
|
211.57
|
-16.59%
|
1981/5/29
|
1982/7/30
|
248.95
|
211.57
|
-15.02%
|
1981/6/30
|
1982/7/30
|
248.82
|
211.57
|
-14.97%
|
1981/7/31
|
1982/7/30
|
244.86
|
211.57
|
-13.60%
|
1981/8/31
|
1982/7/30
|
240.32
|
211.57
|
-11.97%
|
1981/11/30
|
1982/7/30
|
246.96
|
211.57
|
-14.33%
|
1981/12/31
|
1982/7/30
|
242.00
|
211.57
|
-12.58%
|
1982/1/29
|
1982/7/30
|
238.72
|
211.57
|
-11.38%
|
1984/3/30
|
1984/7/31
|
345.40
|
310.66
|
-10.06%
|
1987/4/30
|
1987/11/30
|
923.20
|
795.40
|
-13.84%
|
1987/5/29
|
1987/11/30
|
924.65
|
795.40
|
-13.98%
|
1987/6/30
|
1987/11/30
|
924.28
|
795.40
|
-13.94%
|
1987/7/31
|
1987/11/30
|
942.91
|
795.40
|
-15.64%
|
1987/8/31
|
1987/11/30
|
998.81
|
795.40
|
-20.36%
|
1987/9/30
|
1987/11/30
|
981.57
|
795.40
|
-18.97%
|
1988/11/30
|
1990/9/28
|
1019.42
|
916.25
|
-10.12%
|
1988/12/30
|
1990/9/28
|
1028.81
|
916.25
|
-10.94%
|
1989/1/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1066.21
|
916.25
|
-14.06%
|
1989/2/28
|
1990/9/28
|
1059.67
|
916.25
|
-13.53%
|
1989/3/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1053.05
|
916.25
|
-12.99%
|
1989/4/28
|
1990/9/28
|
1077.53
|
916.25
|
-14.97%
|
1989/5/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1051.29
|
916.25
|
-12.84%
|
1989/6/30
|
1990/9/28
|
1039.60
|
916.25
|
-11.86%
|
1989/7/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1157.25
|
916.25
|
-20.83%
|
1989/8/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1129.42
|
916.25
|
-18.87%
|
1989/9/29
|
1990/9/28
|
1161.50
|
916.25
|
-21.11%
|
1989/10/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1122.95
|
916.25
|
-18.41%
|
1989/11/30
|
1990/9/28
|
1167.97
|
916.25
|
-21.55%
|
1989/12/29
|
1990/9/28
|
1205.70
|
916.25
|
-24.01%
|
1990/1/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1149.59
|
916.25
|
-20.30%
|
1990/2/28
|
1990/9/28
|
1100.48
|
916.25
|
-16.74%
|
1990/3/30
|
1990/9/28
|
1034.21
|
916.25
|
-11.41%
|
1990/4/30
|
1990/9/28
|
1019.49
|
916.25
|
-10.13%
|
1990/5/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1127.04
|
916.25
|
-18.70%
|
1990/6/29
|
1990/9/28
|
1119.20
|
916.25
|
-18.13%
|
1990/7/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1129.59
|
916.25
|
-18.89%
|
1990/8/31
|
1990/9/28
|
1024.05
|
916.25
|
-10.53%
|
1997/5/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2260.16
|
2025.61
|
-10.38%
|
1997/6/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2373.25
|
2025.61
|
-14.65%
|
1997/7/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2482.91
|
2025.61
|
-18.42%
|
1997/8/29
|
2002/9/30
|
2317.18
|
2025.61
|
-12.58%
|
1997/9/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2443.43
|
2025.61
|
-17.10%
|
1997/10/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2315.20
|
2025.61
|
-12.51%
|
1997/11/28
|
2002/9/30
|
2356.54
|
2025.61
|
-14.04%
|
1997/12/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2385.63
|
2025.61
|
-15.09%
|
1998/1/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2452.49
|
2025.61
|
-17.41%
|
1998/2/27
|
2002/9/30
|
2618.78
|
2025.61
|
-22.65%
|
1998/3/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2729.76
|
2025.61
|
-25.80%
|
1998/4/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2756.85
|
2025.61
|
-26.52%
|
1998/5/29
|
2002/9/30
|
2722.70
|
2025.61
|
-25.60%
|
1998/6/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2787.71
|
2025.61
|
-27.34%
|
1998/7/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2783.64
|
2025.61
|
-27.23%
|
1998/8/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2412.84
|
2025.61
|
-16.05%
|
1998/9/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2455.93
|
2025.61
|
-17.52%
|
1998/10/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2678.37
|
2025.61
|
-24.37%
|
1998/11/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2838.07
|
2025.61
|
-28.63%
|
1998/12/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2977.15
|
2025.61
|
-31.96%
|
1999/1/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3042.76
|
2025.61
|
-33.43%
|
1999/2/26
|
2002/9/30
|
2962.24
|
2025.61
|
-31.62%
|
1999/3/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3086.01
|
2025.61
|
-34.36%
|
1999/4/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3208.09
|
2025.61
|
-36.86%
|
1999/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3091.30
|
2025.61
|
-34.47%
|
1999/6/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3235.91
|
2025.61
|
-37.40%
|
1999/7/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3226.65
|
2025.61
|
-37.22%
|
1999/8/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3221.38
|
2025.61
|
-37.12%
|
1999/9/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3190.58
|
2025.61
|
-36.51%
|
1999/10/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3356.86
|
2025.61
|
-39.66%
|
1999/11/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3451.73
|
2025.61
|
-41.32%
|
1999/12/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3731.56
|
2025.61
|
-45.72%
|
2000/1/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3518.29
|
2025.61
|
-42.43%
|
2000/2/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3528.22
|
2025.61
|
-42.59%
|
2000/3/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3772.52
|
2025.61
|
-46.31%
|
2000/4/28
|
2002/9/30
|
3613.44
|
2025.61
|
-43.94%
|
2000/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3522.40
|
2025.61
|
-42.49%
|
2000/6/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3641.50
|
2025.61
|
-44.37%
|
2000/7/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3539.43
|
2025.61
|
-42.77%
|
2000/8/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3655.01
|
2025.61
|
-44.58%
|
2000/9/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3461.10
|
2025.61
|
-41.47%
|
2000/10/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3403.54
|
2025.61
|
-40.49%
|
2000/11/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3197.34
|
2025.61
|
-36.65%
|
2000/12/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3249.51
|
2025.61
|
-37.66%
|
2001/1/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3312.63
|
2025.61
|
-38.85%
|
2001/2/28
|
2002/9/30
|
3033.04
|
2025.61
|
-33.22%
|
2001/3/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2834.40
|
2025.61
|
-28.53%
|
2001/4/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3044.61
|
2025.61
|
-33.47%
|
2001/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3006.80
|
2025.61
|
-32.63%
|
2001/6/29
|
2002/9/30
|
2913.02
|
2025.61
|
-30.46%
|
2001/7/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2874.66
|
2025.61
|
-29.54%
|
2001/8/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2737.23
|
2025.61
|
-26.00%
|
2001/9/28
|
2002/9/30
|
2496.40
|
2025.61
|
-18.86%
|
2001/10/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2544.47
|
2025.61
|
-20.39%
|
2001/11/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2695.39
|
2025.61
|
-24.85%
|
2001/12/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2712.66
|
2025.61
|
-25.33%
|
2002/1/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2630.77
|
2025.61
|
-23.00%
|
2002/2/28
|
2002/9/30
|
2608.41
|
2025.61
|
-22.34%
|
2002/3/29
|
2002/9/30
|
2724.27
|
2025.61
|
-25.65%
|
2002/4/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2632.75
|
2025.61
|
-23.06%
|
2002/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2638.86
|
2025.61
|
-23.24%
|
2002/6/28
|
2002/9/30
|
2479.29
|
2025.61
|
-18.30%
|
2002/7/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2270.61
|
2025.61
|
-10.79%
|
2002/8/30
|
2002/9/30
|
2275.34
|
2025.61
|
-10.98%
|
2003/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2704.63
|
2393.87
|
-11.49%
|
2003/11/28
|
2009/2/27
|
2746.46
|
2393.87
|
-12.84%
|
2003/12/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2919.44
|
2393.87
|
-18.00%
|
2004/1/30
|
2009/2/27
|
2966.93
|
2393.87
|
-19.31%
|
2004/2/27
|
2009/2/27
|
3017.68
|
2393.87
|
-20.67%
|
2004/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2998.83
|
2393.87
|
-20.17%
|
2004/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
2939.08
|
2393.87
|
-18.55%
|
2004/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2967.88
|
2393.87
|
-19.34%
|
2004/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3030.09
|
2393.87
|
-21.00%
|
2004/7/30
|
2009/2/27
|
2931.96
|
2393.87
|
-18.35%
|
2004/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2946.02
|
2393.87
|
-18.74%
|
2004/9/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3002.70
|
2393.87
|
-20.28%
|
2004/10/29
|
2009/2/27
|
3076.90
|
2393.87
|
-22.20%
|
2004/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3239.90
|
2393.87
|
-26.11%
|
2004/12/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3364.56
|
2393.87
|
-28.85%
|
2005/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3289.44
|
2393.87
|
-27.23%
|
2005/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
3395.13
|
2393.87
|
-29.49%
|
2005/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3330.64
|
2393.87
|
-28.13%
|
2005/4/29
|
2009/2/27
|
3260.39
|
2393.87
|
-26.58%
|
2005/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3320.82
|
2393.87
|
-27.91%
|
2005/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3351.02
|
2393.87
|
-28.56%
|
2005/7/29
|
2009/2/27
|
3468.82
|
2393.87
|
-30.99%
|
2005/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3496.58
|
2393.87
|
-31.54%
|
2005/9/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3588.41
|
2393.87
|
-33.29%
|
2005/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3502.06
|
2393.87
|
-31.64%
|
2005/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3620.66
|
2393.87
|
-33.88%
|
2005/12/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3701.80
|
2393.87
|
-35.33%
|
2006/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3867.81
|
2393.87
|
-38.11%
|
2006/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
3863.68
|
2393.87
|
-38.04%
|
2006/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3950.38
|
2393.87
|
-39.40%
|
2006/4/28
|
2009/2/27
|
4072.43
|
2393.87
|
-41.22%
|
2006/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3936.96
|
2393.87
|
-39.19%
|
2006/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3937.43
|
2393.87
|
-39.20%
|
2006/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3962.86
|
2393.87
|
-39.59%
|
2006/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4067.75
|
2393.87
|
-41.15%
|
2006/9/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4117.43
|
2393.87
|
-41.86%
|
2006/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4269.39
|
2393.87
|
-43.93%
|
2006/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4376.15
|
2393.87
|
-45.30%
|
2006/12/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4466.30
|
2393.87
|
-46.40%
|
2007/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4519.92
|
2393.87
|
-47.04%
|
2007/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
4498.26
|
2393.87
|
-46.78%
|
2007/3/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4582.51
|
2393.87
|
-47.76%
|
2007/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4787.32
|
2393.87
|
-50.00%
|
2007/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4926.19
|
2393.87
|
-51.41%
|
2007/6/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4889.92
|
2393.87
|
-51.04%
|
2007/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4782.62
|
2393.87
|
-49.95%
|
2007/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4781.07
|
2393.87
|
-49.93%
|
2007/9/28
|
2009/2/27
|
5010.07
|
2393.87
|
-52.22%
|
2007/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
5164.82
|
2393.87
|
-53.65%
|
2007/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4956.05
|
2393.87
|
-51.70%
|
2007/12/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4893.54
|
2393.87
|
-51.08%
|
2008/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4520.67
|
2393.87
|
-47.05%
|
2008/2/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4496.69
|
2393.87
|
-46.76%
|
2008/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4455.80
|
2393.87
|
-46.28%
|
2008/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4693.58
|
2393.87
|
-49.00%
|
2008/5/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4770.99
|
2393.87
|
-49.82%
|
2008/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4392.17
|
2393.87
|
-45.50%
|
2008/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4285.97
|
2393.87
|
-44.15%
|
2008/8/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4227.71
|
2393.87
|
-43.38%
|
2008/9/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3726.69
|
2393.87
|
-35.76%
|
2008/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3021.07
|
2393.87
|
-20.76%
|
2008/11/28
|
2009/2/27
|
2827.61
|
2393.87
|
-15.34%
|
2008/12/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2919.78
|
2393.87
|
-18.01%
|
2009/1/30
|
2009/2/27
|
2664.85
|
2393.87
|
-10.17%
|
2010/3/31
|
2010/6/30
|
3946.96
|
3453.89
|
-12.49%
|
2010/4/30
|
2010/6/30
|
3949.72
|
3453.89
|
-12.55%
|
2010/12/31
|
2011/9/30
|
4290.05
|
3782.76
|
-11.82%
|
2011/1/31
|
2011/9/30
|
4387.97
|
3782.76
|
-13.79%
|
2011/2/28
|
2011/9/30
|
4543.55
|
3782.76
|
-16.74%
|
2011/3/31
|
2011/9/30
|
4500.83
|
3782.76
|
-15.95%
|
2011/4/29
|
2011/9/30
|
4694.88
|
3782.76
|
-19.43%
|
2011/5/31
|
2011/9/30
|
4602.24
|
3782.76
|
-17.81%
|
2011/6/30
|
2011/9/30
|
4531.21
|
3782.76
|
-16.52%
|
2011/7/29
|
2011/9/30
|
4450.25
|
3782.76
|
-15.00%
|
2015/2/27
|
2016/2/29
|
6637.22
|
5940.80
|
-10.49%
|
2015/4/30
|
2016/2/29
|
6694.31
|
5940.80
|
-11.26%
|
2015/5/29
|
2016/2/29
|
6723.06
|
5940.80
|
-11.64%
|
2015/7/31
|
2016/2/29
|
6689.58
|
5940.80
|
-11.19%
|
表六: MSCI WORLD自1969年12月底所發生的超過30%的最大耗損歷史紀錄
投資起始日
|
發生最大耗損日
|
投資起始日指數水準
|
發生最大耗損日指數水準
|
報酬率
|
1972/2/29
|
1974/9/30
|
126.35
|
87.80
|
-30.52%
|
1972/3/31
|
1974/9/30
|
128.20
|
87.80
|
-31.51%
|
1972/4/28
|
1974/9/30
|
129.99
|
87.80
|
-32.46%
|
1972/5/31
|
1974/9/30
|
132.73
|
87.80
|
-33.85%
|
1972/6/30
|
1974/9/30
|
129.74
|
87.80
|
-32.33%
|
1972/7/31
|
1974/9/30
|
131.85
|
87.80
|
-33.41%
|
1972/8/31
|
1974/9/30
|
135.69
|
87.80
|
-35.30%
|
1972/9/29
|
1974/9/30
|
133.72
|
87.80
|
-34.34%
|
1972/10/31
|
1974/9/30
|
134.92
|
87.80
|
-34.93%
|
1972/11/30
|
1974/9/30
|
142.09
|
87.80
|
-38.21%
|
1972/12/29
|
1974/9/30
|
144.79
|
87.80
|
-39.36%
|
1973/1/31
|
1974/9/30
|
145.23
|
87.80
|
-39.54%
|
1973/2/28
|
1974/9/30
|
146.32
|
87.80
|
-40.00%
|
1973/3/30
|
1974/9/30
|
146.62
|
87.80
|
-40.12%
|
1973/4/30
|
1974/9/30
|
139.33
|
87.80
|
-36.99%
|
1973/5/31
|
1974/9/30
|
139.01
|
87.80
|
-36.84%
|
1973/6/29
|
1974/9/30
|
139.98
|
87.80
|
-37.28%
|
1973/7/31
|
1974/9/30
|
143.42
|
87.80
|
-38.78%
|
1973/8/31
|
1974/9/30
|
137.56
|
87.80
|
-36.18%
|
1973/9/28
|
1974/9/30
|
141.64
|
87.80
|
-38.01%
|
1973/10/31
|
1974/9/30
|
143.17
|
87.80
|
-38.68%
|
1974/2/28
|
1974/9/30
|
126.89
|
87.80
|
-30.81%
|
1998/12/31
|
2002/9/30
|
2977.15
|
2025.61
|
-31.96%
|
1999/1/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3042.76
|
2025.61
|
-33.43%
|
1999/2/26
|
2002/9/30
|
2962.24
|
2025.61
|
-31.62%
|
1999/3/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3086.01
|
2025.61
|
-34.36%
|
1999/4/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3208.09
|
2025.61
|
-36.86%
|
1999/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3091.30
|
2025.61
|
-34.47%
|
1999/6/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3235.91
|
2025.61
|
-37.40%
|
1999/7/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3226.65
|
2025.61
|
-37.22%
|
1999/8/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3221.38
|
2025.61
|
-37.12%
|
1999/9/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3190.58
|
2025.61
|
-36.51%
|
1999/10/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3356.86
|
2025.61
|
-39.66%
|
1999/11/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3451.73
|
2025.61
|
-41.32%
|
1999/12/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3731.56
|
2025.61
|
-45.72%
|
2000/1/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3518.29
|
2025.61
|
-42.43%
|
2000/2/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3528.22
|
2025.61
|
-42.59%
|
2000/3/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3772.52
|
2025.61
|
-46.31%
|
2000/4/28
|
2002/9/30
|
3613.44
|
2025.61
|
-43.94%
|
2000/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3522.40
|
2025.61
|
-42.49%
|
2000/6/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3641.50
|
2025.61
|
-44.37%
|
2000/7/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3539.43
|
2025.61
|
-42.77%
|
2000/8/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3655.01
|
2025.61
|
-44.58%
|
2000/9/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3461.10
|
2025.61
|
-41.47%
|
2000/10/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3403.54
|
2025.61
|
-40.49%
|
2000/11/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3197.34
|
2025.61
|
-36.65%
|
2000/12/29
|
2002/9/30
|
3249.51
|
2025.61
|
-37.66%
|
2001/1/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3312.63
|
2025.61
|
-38.85%
|
2001/2/28
|
2002/9/30
|
3033.04
|
2025.61
|
-33.22%
|
2001/4/30
|
2002/9/30
|
3044.61
|
2025.61
|
-33.47%
|
2001/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
3006.80
|
2025.61
|
-32.63%
|
2001/6/29
|
2002/9/30
|
2913.02
|
2025.61
|
-30.46%
|
2005/7/29
|
2009/2/27
|
3468.82
|
2393.87
|
-30.99%
|
2005/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3496.58
|
2393.87
|
-31.54%
|
2005/9/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3588.41
|
2393.87
|
-33.29%
|
2005/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3502.06
|
2393.87
|
-31.64%
|
2005/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3620.66
|
2393.87
|
-33.88%
|
2005/12/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3701.80
|
2393.87
|
-35.33%
|
2006/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3867.81
|
2393.87
|
-38.11%
|
2006/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
3863.68
|
2393.87
|
-38.04%
|
2006/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3950.38
|
2393.87
|
-39.40%
|
2006/4/28
|
2009/2/27
|
4072.43
|
2393.87
|
-41.22%
|
2006/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3936.96
|
2393.87
|
-39.19%
|
2006/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3937.43
|
2393.87
|
-39.20%
|
2006/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
3962.86
|
2393.87
|
-39.59%
|
2006/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4067.75
|
2393.87
|
-41.15%
|
2006/9/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4117.43
|
2393.87
|
-41.86%
|
2006/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4269.39
|
2393.87
|
-43.93%
|
2006/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4376.15
|
2393.87
|
-45.30%
|
2006/12/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4466.30
|
2393.87
|
-46.40%
|
2007/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4519.92
|
2393.87
|
-47.04%
|
2007/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
4498.26
|
2393.87
|
-46.78%
|
2007/3/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4582.51
|
2393.87
|
-47.76%
|
2007/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4787.32
|
2393.87
|
-50.00%
|
2007/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4926.19
|
2393.87
|
-51.41%
|
2007/6/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4889.92
|
2393.87
|
-51.04%
|
2007/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4782.62
|
2393.87
|
-49.95%
|
2007/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4781.07
|
2393.87
|
-49.93%
|
2007/9/28
|
2009/2/27
|
5010.07
|
2393.87
|
-52.22%
|
2007/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
5164.82
|
2393.87
|
-53.65%
|
2007/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4956.05
|
2393.87
|
-51.70%
|
2007/12/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4893.54
|
2393.87
|
-51.08%
|
2008/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4520.67
|
2393.87
|
-47.05%
|
2008/2/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4496.69
|
2393.87
|
-46.76%
|
2008/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4455.80
|
2393.87
|
-46.28%
|
2008/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4693.58
|
2393.87
|
-49.00%
|
2008/5/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4770.99
|
2393.87
|
-49.82%
|
2008/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
4392.17
|
2393.87
|
-45.50%
|
2008/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
4285.97
|
2393.87
|
-44.15%
|
2008/8/29
|
2009/2/27
|
4227.71
|
2393.87
|
-43.38%
|
2008/9/30
|
2009/2/27
|
3726.69
|
2393.87
|
-35.76%
|
從MSCI已開發國家含股息指數我們就可以說明我們前面的論點，1973/3/30至1974/9/30期間，下跌超過40%，但1973/3/30的含股息指數是146.62，在1974/9/30跌到87.80，後續暴跌時期有2000/3/31至2002/9/30含股息指數從3772.52跌至2025.61，跌幅超過46%。2007/10/31至2009/2/27含股息指數從5164.82跌至2393.87，跌幅超過53%，但2002/9/30、2009/2/27的指數水準，都遠高於1973/3/30的指數水準，說明了在充分分散的投資組合，即使在高點買進，等夠久總會回來的道理，只是有時候等待期可能超過所有人的預期，投資人不僅遭受本金長期的虧損，心理面也容易有重大的影響。
不論是上篇ACWI或是這兩篇的兩個區域，就歷史數據來說，股市往下修正10%是家常便飯。
最後，比較MSCI新興市場與已開發國家，會發現兩個區域跌幅時期有時會有極大的不同，舉例來說，MSCI新興市場在1997/7/31至1998/8/31與跌幅超過55%，但同期已開發國家僅跌2.82%，這也是為什麼需要分散的原因，即使區域投資已經相當分散了，差異也可能很大。後續幾篇我們會針對MSCI個別國家做分析，但礙於篇幅，我們後續就只放最大耗損超過30%的部分，待續。