長期持有ETF? 先問你能承受多少的Maximum Drawdown!(三)
表三: MSCI Emerging
Markets 自1987年12月底所發生的超過10%的最大耗損歷史紀錄
投資起始日
|
發生最大耗損日
|
投資起始日指數水準
|
發生最大耗損日指數水準
|
報酬率
|
1989/4/28
|
1989/6/30
|
195.29
|
173.91
|
-10.95%
|
1989/5/31
|
1989/6/30
|
197.92
|
173.91
|
-12.13%
|
1989/12/29
|
1990/11/30
|
231.65
|
198.81
|
-14.18%
|
1990/1/31
|
1990/11/30
|
239.27
|
198.81
|
-16.91%
|
1990/2/28
|
1990/11/30
|
248.66
|
198.81
|
-20.05%
|
1990/4/30
|
1990/11/30
|
230.53
|
198.81
|
-13.76%
|
1990/5/31
|
1990/11/30
|
249.46
|
198.81
|
-20.31%
|
1990/6/29
|
1990/11/30
|
258.08
|
198.81
|
-22.97%
|
1990/7/31
|
1990/11/30
|
280.84
|
198.81
|
-29.21%
|
1990/8/31
|
1990/11/30
|
245.01
|
198.81
|
-18.86%
|
1992/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
369.71
|
316.29
|
-14.45%
|
1992/2/28
|
1998/8/31
|
386.13
|
316.29
|
-18.09%
|
1992/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
399.20
|
316.29
|
-20.77%
|
1992/4/30
|
1998/8/31
|
396.43
|
316.29
|
-20.21%
|
1992/5/29
|
1998/8/31
|
395.00
|
316.29
|
-19.93%
|
1992/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
355.82
|
316.29
|
-11.11%
|
1992/7/31
|
1998/8/31
|
359.69
|
316.29
|
-12.06%
|
1992/10/30
|
1998/8/31
|
362.50
|
316.29
|
-12.75%
|
1992/11/30
|
1998/8/31
|
358.59
|
316.29
|
-11.80%
|
1992/12/31
|
1998/8/31
|
369.14
|
316.29
|
-14.32%
|
1993/1/29
|
1998/8/31
|
370.92
|
316.29
|
-14.73%
|
1993/2/26
|
1998/8/31
|
377.14
|
316.29
|
-16.13%
|
1993/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
389.61
|
316.29
|
-18.82%
|
1993/4/30
|
1998/8/31
|
398.57
|
316.29
|
-20.64%
|
1993/5/31
|
1998/8/31
|
409.68
|
316.29
|
-22.79%
|
1993/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
421.83
|
316.29
|
-25.02%
|
1993/7/30
|
1998/8/31
|
432.97
|
316.29
|
-26.95%
|
1993/8/31
|
1998/8/31
|
469.53
|
316.29
|
-32.64%
|
1993/9/30
|
1998/8/31
|
486.70
|
316.29
|
-35.01%
|
1993/10/29
|
1998/8/31
|
530.37
|
316.29
|
-40.36%
|
1993/11/30
|
1998/8/31
|
553.84
|
316.29
|
-42.89%
|
1993/12/31
|
1998/8/31
|
645.38
|
316.29
|
-50.99%
|
1994/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
657.13
|
316.29
|
-51.87%
|
1994/2/28
|
1998/8/31
|
645.44
|
316.29
|
-51.00%
|
1994/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
587.03
|
316.29
|
-46.12%
|
1994/4/29
|
1998/8/31
|
575.29
|
316.29
|
-45.02%
|
1994/5/31
|
1998/8/31
|
594.98
|
316.29
|
-46.84%
|
1994/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
578.58
|
316.29
|
-45.33%
|
1994/7/29
|
1998/8/31
|
614.55
|
316.29
|
-48.53%
|
1994/8/31
|
1998/8/31
|
690.83
|
316.29
|
-54.22%
|
1994/9/30
|
1998/8/31
|
698.68
|
316.29
|
-54.73%
|
1994/10/31
|
1998/8/31
|
686.08
|
316.29
|
-53.90%
|
1994/11/30
|
1998/8/31
|
650.40
|
316.29
|
-51.37%
|
1994/12/30
|
1998/8/31
|
598.17
|
316.29
|
-47.12%
|
1995/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
534.53
|
316.29
|
-40.83%
|
1995/2/28
|
1998/8/31
|
520.82
|
316.29
|
-39.27%
|
1995/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
524.13
|
316.29
|
-39.65%
|
1995/4/28
|
1998/8/31
|
547.64
|
316.29
|
-42.24%
|
1995/5/31
|
1998/8/31
|
576.77
|
316.29
|
-45.16%
|
1995/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
578.48
|
316.29
|
-45.32%
|
1995/7/31
|
1998/8/31
|
591.46
|
316.29
|
-46.52%
|
1995/8/31
|
1998/8/31
|
577.53
|
316.29
|
-45.23%
|
1995/9/29
|
1998/8/31
|
574.79
|
316.29
|
-44.97%
|
1995/10/31
|
1998/8/31
|
552.79
|
316.29
|
-42.78%
|
1995/11/30
|
1998/8/31
|
542.93
|
316.29
|
-41.74%
|
1995/12/29
|
1998/8/31
|
567.01
|
316.29
|
-44.22%
|
1996/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
607.31
|
316.29
|
-47.92%
|
1996/2/29
|
1998/8/31
|
597.66
|
316.29
|
-47.08%
|
1996/3/29
|
1998/8/31
|
602.31
|
316.29
|
-47.49%
|
1996/4/30
|
1998/8/31
|
626.39
|
316.29
|
-49.51%
|
1996/5/31
|
1998/8/31
|
623.60
|
316.29
|
-49.28%
|
1996/6/28
|
1998/8/31
|
627.49
|
316.29
|
-49.59%
|
1996/7/31
|
1998/8/31
|
584.61
|
316.29
|
-45.90%
|
1996/8/30
|
1998/8/31
|
599.57
|
316.29
|
-47.25%
|
1996/9/30
|
1998/8/31
|
604.76
|
316.29
|
-47.70%
|
1996/10/31
|
1998/8/31
|
588.64
|
316.29
|
-46.27%
|
1996/11/29
|
1998/8/31
|
598.50
|
316.29
|
-47.15%
|
1996/12/31
|
1998/8/31
|
601.21
|
316.29
|
-47.39%
|
1997/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
642.21
|
316.29
|
-50.75%
|
1997/2/28
|
1998/8/31
|
669.72
|
316.29
|
-52.77%
|
1997/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
652.12
|
316.29
|
-51.50%
|
1997/4/30
|
1998/8/31
|
653.28
|
316.29
|
-51.58%
|
1997/5/30
|
1998/8/31
|
671.97
|
316.29
|
-52.93%
|
1997/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
707.94
|
316.29
|
-55.32%
|
1997/7/31
|
1998/8/31
|
718.50
|
316.29
|
-55.98%
|
1997/8/29
|
1998/8/31
|
627.07
|
316.29
|
-49.56%
|
1997/9/30
|
1998/8/31
|
644.45
|
316.29
|
-50.92%
|
1997/10/31
|
1998/8/31
|
538.70
|
316.29
|
-41.29%
|
1997/11/28
|
1998/8/31
|
519.05
|
316.29
|
-39.06%
|
1997/12/31
|
1998/8/31
|
531.56
|
316.29
|
-40.50%
|
1998/1/30
|
1998/8/31
|
489.87
|
316.29
|
-35.43%
|
1998/2/27
|
1998/8/31
|
541.00
|
316.29
|
-41.53%
|
1998/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
564.47
|
316.29
|
-43.97%
|
1998/4/30
|
1998/8/31
|
558.32
|
316.29
|
-43.35%
|
1998/5/29
|
1998/8/31
|
481.81
|
316.29
|
-34.35%
|
1998/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
431.27
|
316.29
|
-26.66%
|
1998/7/31
|
1998/8/31
|
444.94
|
316.29
|
-28.91%
|
1998/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
402.70
|
353.37
|
-12.25%
|
1998/12/31
|
2001/9/28
|
396.86
|
353.37
|
-10.96%
|
1999/2/26
|
2001/9/28
|
394.26
|
353.37
|
-10.37%
|
1999/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
446.21
|
353.37
|
-20.81%
|
1999/4/30
|
2001/9/28
|
501.42
|
353.37
|
-29.53%
|
1999/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
498.50
|
353.37
|
-29.11%
|
1999/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
555.08
|
353.37
|
-36.34%
|
1999/7/30
|
2001/9/28
|
540.00
|
353.37
|
-34.56%
|
1999/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
544.91
|
353.37
|
-35.15%
|
1999/9/30
|
2001/9/28
|
526.47
|
353.37
|
-32.88%
|
1999/10/29
|
2001/9/28
|
537.68
|
353.37
|
-34.28%
|
1999/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
585.89
|
353.37
|
-39.69%
|
1999/12/31
|
2001/9/28
|
660.41
|
353.37
|
-46.49%
|
2000/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
664.34
|
353.37
|
-46.81%
|
2000/2/29
|
2001/9/28
|
673.12
|
353.37
|
-47.50%
|
2000/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
676.40
|
353.37
|
-47.76%
|
2000/4/28
|
2001/9/28
|
612.28
|
353.37
|
-42.29%
|
2000/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
586.97
|
353.37
|
-39.80%
|
2000/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
607.65
|
353.37
|
-41.85%
|
2000/7/31
|
2001/9/28
|
576.40
|
353.37
|
-38.69%
|
2000/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
579.23
|
353.37
|
-38.99%
|
2000/9/29
|
2001/9/28
|
528.65
|
353.37
|
-33.16%
|
2000/10/31
|
2001/9/28
|
490.33
|
353.37
|
-27.93%
|
2000/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
447.45
|
353.37
|
-21.03%
|
2000/12/29
|
2001/9/28
|
458.26
|
353.37
|
-22.89%
|
2001/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
521.36
|
353.37
|
-32.22%
|
2001/2/28
|
2001/9/28
|
480.54
|
353.37
|
-26.46%
|
2001/3/30
|
2001/9/28
|
433.34
|
353.37
|
-18.45%
|
2001/4/30
|
2001/9/28
|
454.75
|
353.37
|
-22.29%
|
2001/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
460.18
|
353.37
|
-23.21%
|
2001/6/29
|
2001/9/28
|
450.73
|
353.37
|
-21.60%
|
2001/7/31
|
2001/9/28
|
422.25
|
353.37
|
-16.31%
|
2001/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
418.09
|
353.37
|
-15.48%
|
2001/12/31
|
2002/9/30
|
447.39
|
382.18
|
-14.57%
|
2002/1/31
|
2002/9/30
|
462.55
|
382.18
|
-17.37%
|
2002/2/28
|
2002/9/30
|
470.15
|
382.18
|
-18.71%
|
2002/3/29
|
2002/9/30
|
498.43
|
382.18
|
-23.32%
|
2002/4/30
|
2002/9/30
|
501.66
|
382.18
|
-23.82%
|
2002/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
493.67
|
382.18
|
-22.58%
|
2002/6/28
|
2002/9/30
|
456.63
|
382.18
|
-16.30%
|
2002/8/30
|
2002/9/30
|
428.40
|
382.18
|
-10.79%
|
2004/2/27
|
2004/7/30
|
711.95
|
640.54
|
-10.03%
|
2004/3/31
|
2004/7/30
|
721.10
|
640.54
|
-11.17%
|
2005/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
950.29
|
853.47
|
-10.19%
|
2005/9/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1038.90
|
853.47
|
-17.85%
|
2005/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
971.03
|
853.47
|
-12.11%
|
2005/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1051.42
|
853.47
|
-18.83%
|
2005/12/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1113.71
|
853.47
|
-23.37%
|
2006/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1238.78
|
853.47
|
-31.10%
|
2006/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
1237.60
|
853.47
|
-31.04%
|
2006/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1248.69
|
853.47
|
-31.65%
|
2006/4/28
|
2009/2/27
|
1337.80
|
853.47
|
-36.20%
|
2006/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1197.91
|
853.47
|
-28.75%
|
2006/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1195.37
|
853.47
|
-28.60%
|
2006/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1212.95
|
853.47
|
-29.64%
|
2006/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1244.46
|
853.47
|
-31.42%
|
2006/9/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1254.93
|
853.47
|
-31.99%
|
2006/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1314.60
|
853.47
|
-35.08%
|
2006/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1412.50
|
853.47
|
-39.58%
|
2006/12/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1476.24
|
853.47
|
-42.19%
|
2007/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1461.33
|
853.47
|
-41.60%
|
2007/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
1452.86
|
853.47
|
-41.26%
|
2007/3/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1511.06
|
853.47
|
-43.52%
|
2007/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1582.97
|
853.47
|
-46.08%
|
2007/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1660.28
|
853.47
|
-48.59%
|
2007/6/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1738.81
|
853.47
|
-50.92%
|
2007/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1831.46
|
853.47
|
-53.40%
|
2007/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1793.13
|
853.47
|
-52.40%
|
2007/9/28
|
2009/2/27
|
1991.31
|
853.47
|
-57.14%
|
2007/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2213.54
|
853.47
|
-61.44%
|
2007/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
2056.72
|
853.47
|
-58.50%
|
2007/12/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2064.11
|
853.47
|
-58.65%
|
2008/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1807.13
|
853.47
|
-52.77%
|
2008/2/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1941.17
|
853.47
|
-56.03%
|
2008/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1838.62
|
853.47
|
-53.58%
|
2008/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1988.13
|
853.47
|
-57.07%
|
2008/5/30
|
2009/2/27
|
2025.59
|
853.47
|
-57.87%
|
2008/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1823.79
|
853.47
|
-53.20%
|
2008/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1756.44
|
853.47
|
-51.41%
|
2008/8/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1616.72
|
853.47
|
-47.21%
|
2008/9/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1333.96
|
853.47
|
-36.02%
|
2008/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
969.08
|
853.47
|
-11.93%
|
2008/12/31
|
2009/2/27
|
966.34
|
853.47
|
-11.68%
|
2009/12/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1729.96
|
1531.63
|
-11.46%
|
2010/3/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1772.37
|
1531.63
|
-13.58%
|
2010/4/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1794.24
|
1531.63
|
-14.64%
|
2010/7/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1761.97
|
1531.63
|
-13.07%
|
2010/8/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1728.34
|
1531.63
|
-11.38%
|
2010/9/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1920.65
|
1531.63
|
-20.25%
|
2010/10/29
|
2016/2/29
|
1976.58
|
1531.63
|
-22.51%
|
2010/11/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1924.49
|
1531.63
|
-20.41%
|
2010/12/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2062.04
|
1531.63
|
-25.72%
|
2011/1/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2006.49
|
1531.63
|
-23.67%
|
2011/2/28
|
2016/2/29
|
1988.07
|
1531.63
|
-22.96%
|
2011/3/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2105.28
|
1531.63
|
-27.25%
|
2011/4/29
|
2016/2/29
|
2171.04
|
1531.63
|
-29.45%
|
2011/5/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2114.96
|
1531.63
|
-27.58%
|
2011/6/30
|
2016/2/29
|
2083.31
|
1531.63
|
-26.48%
|
2011/7/29
|
2016/2/29
|
2075.48
|
1531.63
|
-26.20%
|
2011/8/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1890.76
|
1531.63
|
-18.99%
|
2011/10/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1829.55
|
1531.63
|
-16.28%
|
2011/11/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1707.72
|
1531.63
|
-10.31%
|
2012/1/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1879.01
|
1531.63
|
-18.49%
|
2012/2/29
|
2016/2/29
|
1991.91
|
1531.63
|
-23.11%
|
2012/3/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1925.64
|
1531.63
|
-20.46%
|
2012/4/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1903.16
|
1531.63
|
-19.52%
|
2012/6/29
|
2016/2/29
|
1756.77
|
1531.63
|
-12.82%
|
2012/7/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1792.30
|
1531.63
|
-14.54%
|
2012/8/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1787.12
|
1531.63
|
-14.30%
|
2012/9/28
|
2016/2/29
|
1895.32
|
1531.63
|
-19.19%
|
2012/10/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1884.01
|
1531.63
|
-18.70%
|
2012/11/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1908.07
|
1531.63
|
-19.73%
|
2012/12/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2001.60
|
1531.63
|
-23.48%
|
2013/1/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2029.50
|
1531.63
|
-24.53%
|
2013/2/28
|
2016/2/29
|
2004.30
|
1531.63
|
-23.58%
|
2013/3/29
|
2016/2/29
|
1970.21
|
1531.63
|
-22.26%
|
2013/4/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1985.83
|
1531.63
|
-22.87%
|
2013/5/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1935.82
|
1531.63
|
-20.88%
|
2013/6/28
|
2016/2/29
|
1813.50
|
1531.63
|
-15.54%
|
2013/7/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1833.43
|
1531.63
|
-16.46%
|
2013/8/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1802.66
|
1531.63
|
-15.03%
|
2013/9/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1920.46
|
1531.63
|
-20.25%
|
2013/10/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2014.05
|
1531.63
|
-23.95%
|
2013/11/29
|
2016/2/29
|
1984.76
|
1531.63
|
-22.83%
|
2013/12/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1956.22
|
1531.63
|
-21.70%
|
2014/1/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1829.63
|
1531.63
|
-16.29%
|
2014/2/28
|
2016/2/29
|
1890.62
|
1531.63
|
-18.99%
|
2014/3/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1949.08
|
1531.63
|
-21.42%
|
2014/4/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1956.34
|
1531.63
|
-21.71%
|
2014/5/30
|
2016/2/29
|
2025.07
|
1531.63
|
-24.37%
|
2014/6/30
|
2016/2/29
|
2079.79
|
1531.63
|
-26.36%
|
2014/7/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2121.71
|
1531.63
|
-27.81%
|
2014/8/29
|
2016/2/29
|
2170.38
|
1531.63
|
-29.43%
|
2014/9/30
|
2016/2/29
|
2009.95
|
1531.63
|
-23.80%
|
2014/10/31
|
2016/2/29
|
2033.88
|
1531.63
|
-24.69%
|
2014/11/28
|
2016/2/29
|
2012.49
|
1531.63
|
-23.89%
|
2014/12/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1920.69
|
1531.63
|
-20.26%
|
2015/1/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1932.36
|
1531.63
|
-20.74%
|
2015/2/27
|
2016/2/29
|
1992.43
|
1531.63
|
-23.13%
|
2015/3/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1964.49
|
1531.63
|
-22.03%
|
2015/4/30
|
2016/2/29
|
2116.09
|
1531.63
|
-27.62%
|
2015/5/29
|
2016/2/29
|
2031.76
|
1531.63
|
-24.62%
|
2015/6/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1980.54
|
1531.63
|
-22.67%
|
2015/7/31
|
2016/2/29
|
1844.46
|
1531.63
|
-16.96%
|
2015/10/30
|
2016/2/29
|
1744.66
|
1531.63
|
-12.21%
|
表四: MSCI Emerging
Markets 自1987年12月底所發生的超過30%的最大耗損歷史紀錄
投資起始日
|
發生最大耗損日
|
投資起始日指數水準
|
發生最大耗損日指數水準
|
報酬率
|
1993/8/31
|
1998/8/31
|
469.53
|
316.29
|
-32.64%
|
1993/9/30
|
1998/8/31
|
486.70
|
316.29
|
-35.01%
|
1993/10/29
|
1998/8/31
|
530.37
|
316.29
|
-40.36%
|
1993/11/30
|
1998/8/31
|
553.84
|
316.29
|
-42.89%
|
1993/12/31
|
1998/8/31
|
645.38
|
316.29
|
-50.99%
|
1994/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
657.13
|
316.29
|
-51.87%
|
1994/2/28
|
1998/8/31
|
645.44
|
316.29
|
-51.00%
|
1994/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
587.03
|
316.29
|
-46.12%
|
1994/4/29
|
1998/8/31
|
575.29
|
316.29
|
-45.02%
|
1994/5/31
|
1998/8/31
|
594.98
|
316.29
|
-46.84%
|
1994/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
578.58
|
316.29
|
-45.33%
|
1994/7/29
|
1998/8/31
|
614.55
|
316.29
|
-48.53%
|
1994/8/31
|
1998/8/31
|
690.83
|
316.29
|
-54.22%
|
1994/9/30
|
1998/8/31
|
698.68
|
316.29
|
-54.73%
|
1994/10/31
|
1998/8/31
|
686.08
|
316.29
|
-53.90%
|
1994/11/30
|
1998/8/31
|
650.40
|
316.29
|
-51.37%
|
1994/12/30
|
1998/8/31
|
598.17
|
316.29
|
-47.12%
|
1995/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
534.53
|
316.29
|
-40.83%
|
1995/2/28
|
1998/8/31
|
520.82
|
316.29
|
-39.27%
|
1995/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
524.13
|
316.29
|
-39.65%
|
1995/4/28
|
1998/8/31
|
547.64
|
316.29
|
-42.24%
|
1995/5/31
|
1998/8/31
|
576.77
|
316.29
|
-45.16%
|
1995/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
578.48
|
316.29
|
-45.32%
|
1995/7/31
|
1998/8/31
|
591.46
|
316.29
|
-46.52%
|
1995/8/31
|
1998/8/31
|
577.53
|
316.29
|
-45.23%
|
1995/9/29
|
1998/8/31
|
574.79
|
316.29
|
-44.97%
|
1995/10/31
|
1998/8/31
|
552.79
|
316.29
|
-42.78%
|
1995/11/30
|
1998/8/31
|
542.93
|
316.29
|
-41.74%
|
1995/12/29
|
1998/8/31
|
567.01
|
316.29
|
-44.22%
|
1996/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
607.31
|
316.29
|
-47.92%
|
1996/2/29
|
1998/8/31
|
597.66
|
316.29
|
-47.08%
|
1996/3/29
|
1998/8/31
|
602.31
|
316.29
|
-47.49%
|
1996/4/30
|
1998/8/31
|
626.39
|
316.29
|
-49.51%
|
1996/5/31
|
1998/8/31
|
623.60
|
316.29
|
-49.28%
|
1996/6/28
|
1998/8/31
|
627.49
|
316.29
|
-49.59%
|
1996/7/31
|
1998/8/31
|
584.61
|
316.29
|
-45.90%
|
1996/8/30
|
1998/8/31
|
599.57
|
316.29
|
-47.25%
|
1996/9/30
|
1998/8/31
|
604.76
|
316.29
|
-47.70%
|
1996/10/31
|
1998/8/31
|
588.64
|
316.29
|
-46.27%
|
1996/11/29
|
1998/8/31
|
598.50
|
316.29
|
-47.15%
|
1996/12/31
|
1998/8/31
|
601.21
|
316.29
|
-47.39%
|
1997/1/31
|
1998/8/31
|
642.21
|
316.29
|
-50.75%
|
1997/2/28
|
1998/8/31
|
669.72
|
316.29
|
-52.77%
|
1997/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
652.12
|
316.29
|
-51.50%
|
1997/4/30
|
1998/8/31
|
653.28
|
316.29
|
-51.58%
|
1997/5/30
|
1998/8/31
|
671.97
|
316.29
|
-52.93%
|
1997/6/30
|
1998/8/31
|
707.94
|
316.29
|
-55.32%
|
1997/7/31
|
1998/8/31
|
718.50
|
316.29
|
-55.98%
|
1997/8/29
|
1998/8/31
|
627.07
|
316.29
|
-49.56%
|
1997/9/30
|
1998/8/31
|
644.45
|
316.29
|
-50.92%
|
1997/10/31
|
1998/8/31
|
538.70
|
316.29
|
-41.29%
|
1997/11/28
|
1998/8/31
|
519.05
|
316.29
|
-39.06%
|
1997/12/31
|
1998/8/31
|
531.56
|
316.29
|
-40.50%
|
1998/1/30
|
1998/8/31
|
489.87
|
316.29
|
-35.43%
|
1998/2/27
|
1998/8/31
|
541.00
|
316.29
|
-41.53%
|
1998/3/31
|
1998/8/31
|
564.47
|
316.29
|
-43.97%
|
1998/4/30
|
1998/8/31
|
558.32
|
316.29
|
-43.35%
|
1998/5/29
|
1998/8/31
|
481.81
|
316.29
|
-34.35%
|
1999/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
555.08
|
353.37
|
-36.34%
|
1999/7/30
|
2001/9/28
|
540.00
|
353.37
|
-34.56%
|
1999/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
544.91
|
353.37
|
-35.15%
|
1999/9/30
|
2001/9/28
|
526.47
|
353.37
|
-32.88%
|
1999/10/29
|
2001/9/28
|
537.68
|
353.37
|
-34.28%
|
1999/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
585.89
|
353.37
|
-39.69%
|
1999/12/31
|
2001/9/28
|
660.41
|
353.37
|
-46.49%
|
2000/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
664.34
|
353.37
|
-46.81%
|
2000/2/29
|
2001/9/28
|
673.12
|
353.37
|
-47.50%
|
2000/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
676.40
|
353.37
|
-47.76%
|
2000/4/28
|
2001/9/28
|
612.28
|
353.37
|
-42.29%
|
2000/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
586.97
|
353.37
|
-39.80%
|
2000/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
607.65
|
353.37
|
-41.85%
|
2000/7/31
|
2001/9/28
|
576.40
|
353.37
|
-38.69%
|
2000/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
579.23
|
353.37
|
-38.99%
|
2000/9/29
|
2001/9/28
|
528.65
|
353.37
|
-33.16%
|
2001/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
521.36
|
353.37
|
-32.22%
|
2006/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1238.78
|
853.47
|
-31.10%
|
2006/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
1237.60
|
853.47
|
-31.04%
|
2006/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1248.69
|
853.47
|
-31.65%
|
2006/4/28
|
2009/2/27
|
1337.80
|
853.47
|
-36.20%
|
2006/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1244.46
|
853.47
|
-31.42%
|
2006/9/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1254.93
|
853.47
|
-31.99%
|
2006/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1314.60
|
853.47
|
-35.08%
|
2006/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1412.50
|
853.47
|
-39.58%
|
2006/12/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1476.24
|
853.47
|
-42.19%
|
2007/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1461.33
|
853.47
|
-41.60%
|
2007/2/28
|
2009/2/27
|
1452.86
|
853.47
|
-41.26%
|
2007/3/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1511.06
|
853.47
|
-43.52%
|
2007/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1582.97
|
853.47
|
-46.08%
|
2007/5/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1660.28
|
853.47
|
-48.59%
|
2007/6/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1738.81
|
853.47
|
-50.92%
|
2007/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1831.46
|
853.47
|
-53.40%
|
2007/8/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1793.13
|
853.47
|
-52.40%
|
2007/9/28
|
2009/2/27
|
1991.31
|
853.47
|
-57.14%
|
2007/10/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2213.54
|
853.47
|
-61.44%
|
2007/11/30
|
2009/2/27
|
2056.72
|
853.47
|
-58.50%
|
2007/12/31
|
2009/2/27
|
2064.11
|
853.47
|
-58.65%
|
2008/1/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1807.13
|
853.47
|
-52.77%
|
2008/2/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1941.17
|
853.47
|
-56.03%
|
2008/3/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1838.62
|
853.47
|
-53.58%
|
2008/4/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1988.13
|
853.47
|
-57.07%
|
2008/5/30
|
2009/2/27
|
2025.59
|
853.47
|
-57.87%
|
2008/6/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1823.79
|
853.47
|
-53.20%
|
2008/7/31
|
2009/2/27
|
1756.44
|
853.47
|
-51.41%
|
2008/8/29
|
2009/2/27
|
1616.72
|
853.47
|
-47.21%
|
2008/9/30
|
2009/2/27
|
1333.96
|
853.47
|
-36.02%
|
ACWI包含新興市場，我們從資料中發現，新興市場的最大耗損是比ACWI大的，2007/10/31自2009/2/27，最大耗損超過60%。這其實說得通，新興市場政經局勢本來就不像已開發國家這麼穩定(否則怎麼叫新興市場呢?)，所以整體的最大耗損自然也較大，符合大家直覺。另一個可能的解釋很單純，就是巧合!為什麼這麼說呢? 原因在於新興市場資料起始是自1987年12月底開始，所以無法觀察更久遠的資料。即使這30年最大耗損較大，也不表示在未來的30年，不會變成已開發國家最大耗損比新興市場還劇烈，不要忘記美國在1920至1930年代的最大耗損，曾經超過80%!(請見A wealth of common sense的文章)，此外，以目前股市水準，MSCI已開發國家的valuation也較新興市場高，所以有待我們後續觀察。
待續。