長期持有ETF? 先問你能承受多少的Maximum Drawdown!(八)
接續上篇,終於來到了此系列的最後一篇,底下我們分析MSCI台灣自1987年底的最大耗損,同樣看到不是發生在金融海嘯時期,而是發生在1990/1/31至1990/9/28之間,最大耗損為-77.9%,如果投資經歷比較久的投資人應該會有印象,那時就是著名的台北股市投機狂熱時期,全民瘋股票。我調閱了一下資料,1986年1月初台灣加權指數大約800多點,股價淨值比約1.7倍,此後股市一飛衝天,在1990/2/12當日最高價來到了著名的12682點,此時的股價淨值比為12倍左右。
一陣的投機狂熱造就了接下來暴跌的前奏,畢竟樹不會長到天上。現在的台灣加權指數同樣是萬點,但股價淨值比又回到了32年前的1.7倍左右,我不是要說接下來絕對不會暴跌,我不認為誰可以預測,包括我在內,但我要說的是現今的台灣股市同樣是萬點,已經比當初健康很多了,至少以各種估值水準來看都是如此(本益比、股價淨值比或是殖利率)。現在的cryptocurrency(虛擬貨幣)會是投機狂熱嗎? 並終將引來後續進一步的暴跌而使得許多人血本無歸? 我不知道,所以這個問題留給各位去思考。
一陣的投機狂熱造就了接下來暴跌的前奏,畢竟樹不會長到天上。現在的台灣加權指數同樣是萬點,但股價淨值比又回到了32年前的1.7倍左右,我不是要說接下來絕對不會暴跌,我不認為誰可以預測,包括我在內,但我要說的是現今的台灣股市同樣是萬點,已經比當初健康很多了,至少以各種估值水準來看都是如此(本益比、股價淨值比或是殖利率)。現在的cryptocurrency(虛擬貨幣)會是投機狂熱嗎? 並終將引來後續進一步的暴跌而使得許多人血本無歸? 我不知道,所以這個問題留給各位去思考。
表十三: MSCI Taiwan自1987年12月底所發生的超過30%的最大耗損歷史紀錄
投資起始日
|
發生最大耗損日
|
投資起始日指數水準
|
發生最大耗損日指數水準
|
報酬率
|
1988/4/29
|
1990/9/28
|
172.97
|
117.40
|
-32.12%
|
1988/5/31
|
1990/9/28
|
187.87
|
117.40
|
-37.51%
|
1988/6/30
|
1990/9/28
|
200.70
|
117.40
|
-41.50%
|
1988/7/29
|
1990/9/28
|
260.01
|
117.40
|
-54.85%
|
1988/8/31
|
1990/9/28
|
323.15
|
117.40
|
-63.67%
|
1988/9/30
|
1990/9/28
|
354.68
|
117.40
|
-66.90%
|
1988/10/31
|
1990/9/28
|
269.32
|
117.40
|
-56.41%
|
1988/11/30
|
1990/9/28
|
289.24
|
117.40
|
-59.41%
|
1988/12/30
|
1990/9/28
|
219.65
|
117.40
|
-46.55%
|
1989/1/31
|
1990/9/28
|
260.44
|
117.40
|
-54.92%
|
1989/2/28
|
1990/9/28
|
295.96
|
117.40
|
-60.33%
|
1989/3/31
|
1990/9/28
|
312.47
|
117.40
|
-62.43%
|
1989/4/28
|
1990/9/28
|
347.97
|
117.40
|
-66.26%
|
1989/5/31
|
1990/9/28
|
432.26
|
117.40
|
-72.84%
|
1989/6/30
|
1990/9/28
|
418.28
|
117.40
|
-71.93%
|
1989/7/31
|
1990/9/28
|
407.92
|
117.40
|
-71.22%
|
1989/8/31
|
1990/9/28
|
423.16
|
117.40
|
-72.26%
|
1989/9/29
|
1990/9/28
|
443.09
|
117.40
|
-73.50%
|
1989/10/31
|
1990/9/28
|
435.50
|
117.40
|
-73.04%
|
1989/11/30
|
1990/9/28
|
384.71
|
117.40
|
-69.48%
|
1989/12/29
|
1990/9/28
|
406.09
|
117.40
|
-71.09%
|
1990/1/31
|
1990/9/28
|
531.13
|
117.40
|
-77.90%
|
1990/2/28
|
1990/9/28
|
499.03
|
117.40
|
-76.47%
|
1990/3/30
|
1990/9/28
|
437.39
|
117.40
|
-73.16%
|
1990/4/30
|
1990/9/28
|
386.93
|
117.40
|
-69.66%
|
1990/5/31
|
1990/9/28
|
302.07
|
117.40
|
-61.13%
|
1990/6/29
|
1990/9/28
|
223.17
|
117.40
|
-47.39%
|
1990/7/31
|
1990/9/28
|
233.54
|
117.40
|
-49.73%
|
1991/4/30
|
1993/1/29
|
248.63
|
152.35
|
-38.72%
|
1991/5/31
|
1993/1/29
|
238.05
|
152.35
|
-36.00%
|
1991/6/28
|
1993/1/29
|
249.41
|
152.35
|
-38.92%
|
1992/1/31
|
1993/1/29
|
244.71
|
152.35
|
-37.74%
|
1992/2/28
|
1993/1/29
|
226.58
|
152.35
|
-32.76%
|
1993/12/31
|
2001/9/28
|
289.03
|
156.28
|
-45.93%
|
1994/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
289.53
|
156.28
|
-46.02%
|
1994/2/28
|
2001/9/28
|
253.64
|
156.28
|
-38.38%
|
1994/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
248.01
|
156.28
|
-36.98%
|
1994/4/29
|
2001/9/28
|
271.18
|
156.28
|
-42.37%
|
1994/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
273.10
|
156.28
|
-42.77%
|
1994/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
279.14
|
156.28
|
-44.01%
|
1994/7/29
|
2001/9/28
|
319.92
|
156.28
|
-51.15%
|
1994/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
333.78
|
156.28
|
-53.18%
|
1994/9/30
|
2001/9/28
|
344.44
|
156.28
|
-54.63%
|
1994/10/31
|
2001/9/28
|
318.16
|
156.28
|
-50.88%
|
1994/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
309.66
|
156.28
|
-49.53%
|
1994/12/30
|
2001/9/28
|
349.08
|
156.28
|
-55.23%
|
1995/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
306.26
|
156.28
|
-48.97%
|
1995/2/28
|
2001/9/28
|
315.73
|
156.28
|
-50.50%
|
1995/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
318.12
|
156.28
|
-50.87%
|
1995/4/28
|
2001/9/28
|
290.50
|
156.28
|
-46.20%
|
1995/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
283.45
|
156.28
|
-44.86%
|
1995/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
269.26
|
156.28
|
-41.96%
|
1995/7/31
|
2001/9/28
|
254.94
|
156.28
|
-38.70%
|
1995/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
230.35
|
156.28
|
-32.15%
|
1995/9/29
|
2001/9/28
|
241.94
|
156.28
|
-35.41%
|
1995/10/31
|
2001/9/28
|
232.28
|
156.28
|
-32.72%
|
1995/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
228.46
|
156.28
|
-31.59%
|
1995/12/29
|
2001/9/28
|
246.72
|
156.28
|
-36.66%
|
1996/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
229.01
|
156.28
|
-31.76%
|
1996/2/29
|
2001/9/28
|
233.28
|
156.28
|
-33.01%
|
1996/3/29
|
2001/9/28
|
246.05
|
156.28
|
-36.48%
|
1996/4/30
|
2001/9/28
|
307.54
|
156.28
|
-49.18%
|
1996/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
297.44
|
156.28
|
-47.46%
|
1996/6/28
|
2001/9/28
|
338.07
|
156.28
|
-53.77%
|
1996/7/31
|
2001/9/28
|
311.07
|
156.28
|
-49.76%
|
1996/8/30
|
2001/9/28
|
324.07
|
156.28
|
-51.77%
|
1996/9/30
|
2001/9/28
|
331.77
|
156.28
|
-52.89%
|
1996/10/31
|
2001/9/28
|
321.29
|
156.28
|
-51.36%
|
1996/11/29
|
2001/9/28
|
340.17
|
156.28
|
-54.06%
|
1996/12/31
|
2001/9/28
|
346.15
|
156.28
|
-54.85%
|
1997/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
360.95
|
156.28
|
-56.70%
|
1997/2/28
|
2001/9/28
|
382.91
|
156.28
|
-59.19%
|
1997/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
379.06
|
156.28
|
-58.77%
|
1997/4/30
|
2001/9/28
|
403.18
|
156.28
|
-61.24%
|
1997/5/30
|
2001/9/28
|
387.03
|
156.28
|
-59.62%
|
1997/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
439.62
|
156.28
|
-64.45%
|
1997/7/31
|
2001/9/28
|
476.59
|
156.28
|
-67.21%
|
1997/8/29
|
2001/9/28
|
456.98
|
156.28
|
-65.80%
|
1997/9/30
|
2001/9/28
|
403.09
|
156.28
|
-61.23%
|
1997/10/31
|
2001/9/28
|
315.48
|
156.28
|
-50.46%
|
1997/11/28
|
2001/9/28
|
318.45
|
156.28
|
-50.92%
|
1997/12/31
|
2001/9/28
|
324.37
|
156.28
|
-51.82%
|
1998/1/30
|
2001/9/28
|
306.89
|
156.28
|
-49.08%
|
1998/2/27
|
2001/9/28
|
372.11
|
156.28
|
-58.00%
|
1998/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
352.24
|
156.28
|
-55.63%
|
1998/4/30
|
2001/9/28
|
319.05
|
156.28
|
-51.02%
|
1998/5/29
|
2001/9/28
|
289.01
|
156.28
|
-45.92%
|
1998/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
271.04
|
156.28
|
-42.34%
|
1998/7/31
|
2001/9/28
|
266.51
|
156.28
|
-41.36%
|
1998/9/30
|
2001/9/28
|
240.13
|
156.28
|
-34.92%
|
1998/10/30
|
2001/9/28
|
270.98
|
156.28
|
-42.33%
|
1998/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
288.52
|
156.28
|
-45.83%
|
1998/12/31
|
2001/9/28
|
257.43
|
156.28
|
-39.29%
|
1999/1/29
|
2001/9/28
|
249.82
|
156.28
|
-37.44%
|
1999/2/26
|
2001/9/28
|
261.81
|
156.28
|
-40.31%
|
1999/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
287.20
|
156.28
|
-45.58%
|
1999/4/30
|
2001/9/28
|
312.26
|
156.28
|
-49.95%
|
1999/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
299.27
|
156.28
|
-47.78%
|
1999/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
366.21
|
156.28
|
-57.32%
|
1999/7/30
|
2001/9/28
|
322.25
|
156.28
|
-51.50%
|
1999/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
361.93
|
156.28
|
-56.82%
|
1999/9/30
|
2001/9/28
|
338.08
|
156.28
|
-53.77%
|
1999/10/29
|
2001/9/28
|
349.77
|
156.28
|
-55.32%
|
1999/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
353.34
|
156.28
|
-55.77%
|
1999/12/31
|
2001/9/28
|
393.13
|
156.28
|
-60.25%
|
2000/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
457.40
|
156.28
|
-65.83%
|
2000/2/29
|
2001/9/28
|
437.87
|
156.28
|
-64.31%
|
2000/3/31
|
2001/9/28
|
454.88
|
156.28
|
-65.64%
|
2000/4/28
|
2001/9/28
|
402.86
|
156.28
|
-61.21%
|
2000/5/31
|
2001/9/28
|
411.18
|
156.28
|
-61.99%
|
2000/6/30
|
2001/9/28
|
382.35
|
156.28
|
-59.13%
|
2000/7/31
|
2001/9/28
|
373.26
|
156.28
|
-58.13%
|
2000/8/31
|
2001/9/28
|
349.76
|
156.28
|
-55.32%
|
2000/9/29
|
2001/9/28
|
293.53
|
156.28
|
-46.76%
|
2000/10/31
|
2001/9/28
|
255.47
|
156.28
|
-38.83%
|
2000/11/30
|
2001/9/28
|
235.77
|
156.28
|
-33.71%
|
2001/1/31
|
2001/9/28
|
279.97
|
156.28
|
-44.18%
|
2001/2/28
|
2001/9/28
|
259.68
|
156.28
|
-39.82%
|
2001/3/30
|
2001/9/28
|
255.68
|
156.28
|
-38.88%
|
2001/4/30
|
2001/9/28
|
237.63
|
156.28
|
-34.23%
|
2002/1/31
|
2002/9/30
|
250.48
|
169.68
|
-32.26%
|
2002/3/29
|
2002/9/30
|
259.98
|
169.68
|
-34.73%
|
2002/4/30
|
2002/9/30
|
254.35
|
169.68
|
-33.29%
|
2002/5/31
|
2002/9/30
|
244.27
|
169.68
|
-30.53%
|
2004/1/30
|
2009/1/30
|
280.28
|
195.01
|
-30.42%
|
2004/2/27
|
2009/1/30
|
291.35
|
195.01
|
-33.07%
|
2004/3/31
|
2009/1/30
|
283.88
|
195.01
|
-31.31%
|
2004/12/31
|
2009/1/30
|
283.03
|
195.01
|
-31.10%
|
2005/2/28
|
2009/1/30
|
290.68
|
195.01
|
-32.91%
|
2005/5/31
|
2009/1/30
|
280.82
|
195.01
|
-30.56%
|
2005/6/30
|
2009/1/30
|
289.56
|
195.01
|
-32.65%
|
2005/7/29
|
2009/1/30
|
294.41
|
195.01
|
-33.76%
|
2005/9/30
|
2009/1/30
|
279.30
|
195.01
|
-30.18%
|
2005/11/30
|
2009/1/30
|
283.27
|
195.01
|
-31.16%
|
2005/12/30
|
2009/1/30
|
303.57
|
195.01
|
-35.76%
|
2006/1/31
|
2009/1/30
|
312.87
|
195.01
|
-37.67%
|
2006/2/28
|
2009/1/30
|
311.14
|
195.01
|
-37.32%
|
2006/3/31
|
2009/1/30
|
311.52
|
195.01
|
-37.40%
|
2006/4/28
|
2009/1/30
|
342.75
|
195.01
|
-43.10%
|
2006/5/31
|
2009/1/30
|
319.83
|
195.01
|
-39.03%
|
2006/6/30
|
2009/1/30
|
314.28
|
195.01
|
-37.95%
|
2006/7/31
|
2009/1/30
|
300.91
|
195.01
|
-35.19%
|
2006/8/31
|
2009/1/30
|
311.98
|
195.01
|
-37.49%
|
2006/9/29
|
2009/1/30
|
324.98
|
195.01
|
-39.99%
|
2006/10/31
|
2009/1/30
|
327.72
|
195.01
|
-40.49%
|
2006/11/30
|
2009/1/30
|
362.01
|
195.01
|
-46.13%
|
2006/12/29
|
2009/1/30
|
367.02
|
195.01
|
-46.87%
|
2007/1/31
|
2009/1/30
|
356.95
|
195.01
|
-45.37%
|
2007/2/28
|
2009/1/30
|
363.25
|
195.01
|
-46.31%
|
2007/3/30
|
2009/1/30
|
355.25
|
195.01
|
-45.11%
|
2007/4/30
|
2009/1/30
|
354.45
|
195.01
|
-44.98%
|
2007/5/31
|
2009/1/30
|
368.35
|
195.01
|
-47.06%
|
2007/6/29
|
2009/1/30
|
405.62
|
195.01
|
-51.92%
|
2007/7/31
|
2009/1/30
|
420.10
|
195.01
|
-53.58%
|
2007/8/31
|
2009/1/30
|
409.05
|
195.01
|
-52.33%
|
2007/9/28
|
2009/1/30
|
433.71
|
195.01
|
-55.04%
|
2007/10/31
|
2009/1/30
|
457.21
|
195.01
|
-57.35%
|
2007/11/30
|
2009/1/30
|
405.91
|
195.01
|
-51.96%
|
2007/12/31
|
2009/1/30
|
400.51
|
195.01
|
-51.31%
|
2008/1/31
|
2009/1/30
|
358.42
|
195.01
|
-45.59%
|
2008/2/29
|
2009/1/30
|
411.59
|
195.01
|
-52.62%
|
2008/3/31
|
2009/1/30
|
421.68
|
195.01
|
-53.75%
|
2008/4/30
|
2009/1/30
|
439.42
|
195.01
|
-55.62%
|
2008/5/30
|
2009/1/30
|
425.29
|
195.01
|
-54.15%
|
2008/6/30
|
2009/1/30
|
377.24
|
195.01
|
-48.31%
|
2008/7/31
|
2009/1/30
|
354.13
|
195.01
|
-44.93%
|
2008/8/29
|
2009/1/30
|
350.79
|
195.01
|
-44.41%
|
2008/9/30
|
2009/1/30
|
284.46
|
195.01
|
-31.45%
|
總結:
近來越來越多人強調被動指數化投資,長期持有複製良好的股市ETF,就是不企圖擊敗市場,而是複製大盤。許多數據都說明,長期持有ETF的方式能夠擊敗多數的專業投資人。不過擊敗專業投資人跟可否賺錢是兩回事,這點應該區分清楚。這個系列文章用了13個表格來敘述最大耗損,也就是投資人在過去可能面臨的巨大虧損狀況,以下我們提出幾點供各位參考
1.
只要是長期投資股市ETF,未來50%以上的修正是絕對可能,並且可能隨時發生,不論你有多分散股票標的或是分散國家都一樣,這是股市特性,所以確保你能忍受這種修正,如同查理蒙格所說,如果你無法承擔這種虧損,你就不該投資股市。
3.
對於非常分散的區域型股市投資,我們從歷史數據看到,只要時間夠久,前波高點將會被後續的最低點所超越,簡單來說,只要投資非常分散,並投資夠久,就算短期發生巨幅虧損,等夠久總會回來的,只是這種等待期,可能遠遠超越你所能忍受的。
股市波動風險確實很高,不論你多分散都是如此,但若投資得宜,確實可以享有可觀的報酬,所以投資人再投入之前,除了確保不是在過度投機的時期一次投入大筆資金去做長期投資外,也要確保自己的心裡面向能夠承擔這種可能的巨幅虧損。