長期持有ETF? 先問你能承受多少的Maximum Drawdown!(五)

接續,接下來我們只放幾個隨意挑選MSCI各國最大耗損超過30%的部分,本篇放的是美國與英國自1969年底以來的最大耗損。一般人可能認為近代時期,金融海嘯應該是產生最大跌幅的時期,由數據我們發現自1969年底以來,雖然對美國來說確實如此,最大耗損為-50.65%,但英國的最大耗損時期是發生在1972-1974年間,最大耗損為-68.21%。可惜的是MSCI最早資料自1969年底開始,不然事實上,美國股市真正的最大耗損是會發生在1930年初的大蕭條時期,那時曾發生過超過80%的最大耗損。下篇我們我會貼上MSCI日本與香港資料供各為參考,事實上最大耗損對這些已開發國家都是如此嚴重,所以請不要以為投資先進國家股市就保證安全。
表七: MSCI USA196912月底所發生的超過30%的最大耗損歷史紀錄
投資起始日
發生最大耗損日
投資起始日指數水準
發生最大耗損日指數水準
報酬率
1971/1/29
1974/9/30
109.71
76.19
-30.55%
1971/2/26
1974/9/30
110.89
76.19
-31.29%
1971/3/31
1974/9/30
115.45
76.19
-34.00%
1971/4/30
1974/9/30
119.99
76.19
-36.50%
1971/5/31
1974/9/30
115.38
76.19
-33.97%
1971/6/30
1974/9/30
116.23
76.19
-34.45%
1971/7/30
1974/9/30
112.15
76.19
-32.06%
1971/8/31
1974/9/30
116.83
76.19
-34.78%
1971/9/30
1974/9/30
115.43
76.19
-34.00%
1971/10/29
1974/9/30
111.37
76.19
-31.59%
1971/11/30
1974/9/30
111.90
76.19
-31.91%
1971/12/31
1974/9/30
118.98
76.19
-35.96%
1972/1/31
1974/9/30
121.46
76.19
-37.27%
1972/2/29
1974/9/30
124.95
76.19
-39.02%
1972/3/31
1974/9/30
126.99
76.19
-40.00%
1972/4/28
1974/9/30
127.29
76.19
-40.14%
1972/5/31
1974/9/30
127.24
76.19
-40.12%
1972/6/30
1974/9/30
125.05
76.19
-39.07%
1972/7/31
1974/9/30
124.44
76.19
-38.77%
1972/8/31
1974/9/30
129.07
76.19
-40.97%
1972/9/29
1974/9/30
129.38
76.19
-41.11%
1972/10/31
1974/9/30
131.16
76.19
-41.91%
1972/11/30
1974/9/30
136.32
76.19
-44.11%
1972/12/29
1974/9/30
138.69
76.19
-45.06%
1973/1/31
1974/9/30
135.50
76.19
-43.77%
1973/2/28
1974/9/30
129.27
76.19
-41.06%
1973/3/30
1974/9/30
127.86
76.19
-40.41%
1973/4/30
1974/9/30
123.07
76.19
-38.09%
1973/5/31
1974/9/30
121.22
76.19
-37.15%
1973/6/29
1974/9/30
121.49
76.19
-37.29%
1973/7/31
1974/9/30
126.39
76.19
-39.72%
1973/8/31
1974/9/30
122.29
76.19
-37.70%
1973/9/28
1974/9/30
126.78
76.19
-39.90%
1973/10/31
1974/9/30
127.44
76.19
-40.21%
1973/11/30
1974/9/30
114.04
76.19
-33.19%
1973/12/31
1974/9/30
116.16
76.19
-34.41%
1974/1/31
1974/9/30
114.28
76.19
-33.33%
1974/2/28
1974/9/30
114.27
76.19
-33.32%
1974/3/29
1974/9/30
111.59
76.19
-31.72%
1998/12/31
2002/9/30
3551.72
2378.79
-33.02%
1999/1/29
2002/9/30
3705.31
2378.79
-35.80%
1999/2/26
2002/9/30
3601.94
2378.79
-33.96%
1999/3/31
2002/9/30
3751.83
2378.79
-36.60%
1999/4/30
2002/9/30
3887.65
2378.79
-38.81%
1999/5/31
2002/9/30
3797.28
2378.79
-37.36%
1999/6/30
2002/9/30
4001.63
2378.79
-40.55%
1999/7/30
2002/9/30
3872.03
2378.79
-38.56%
1999/8/31
2002/9/30
3847.67
2378.79
-38.18%
1999/9/30
2002/9/30
3733.53
2378.79
-36.29%
1999/10/29
2002/9/30
3977.81
2378.79
-40.20%
1999/11/30
2002/9/30
4063.21
2378.79
-41.46%
1999/12/31
2002/9/30
4346.66
2378.79
-45.27%
2000/1/31
2002/9/30
4113.94
2378.79
-42.18%
2000/2/29
2002/9/30
4016.24
2378.79
-40.77%
2000/3/31
2002/9/30
4417.24
2378.79
-46.15%
2000/4/28
2002/9/30
4274.45
2378.79
-44.35%
2000/5/31
2002/9/30
4161.50
2378.79
-42.84%
2000/6/30
2002/9/30
4261.43
2378.79
-44.18%
2000/7/31
2002/9/30
4185.35
2378.79
-43.16%
2000/8/31
2002/9/30
4403.06
2378.79
-45.97%
2000/9/29
2002/9/30
4163.64
2378.79
-42.87%
2000/10/31
2002/9/30
4134.07
2378.79
-42.46%
2000/11/30
2002/9/30
3807.64
2378.79
-37.53%
2000/12/29
2002/9/30
3801.78
2378.79
-37.43%
2001/1/31
2002/9/30
3940.80
2378.79
-39.64%
2001/2/28
2002/9/30
3588.65
2378.79
-33.71%
2001/4/30
2002/9/30
3621.65
2378.79
-34.32%
2001/5/31
2002/9/30
3643.45
2378.79
-34.71%
2001/6/29
2002/9/30
3560.07
2378.79
-33.18%
2001/7/31
2002/9/30
3526.87
2378.79
-32.55%
2004/11/30
2009/2/27
3569.83
2475.33
-30.66%
2004/12/31
2009/2/27
3694.97
2475.33
-33.01%
2005/1/31
2009/2/27
3603.49
2475.33
-31.31%
2005/2/28
2009/2/27
3678.65
2475.33
-32.71%
2005/3/31
2009/2/27
3619.89
2475.33
-31.62%
2005/4/29
2009/2/27
3554.49
2475.33
-30.36%
2005/5/31
2009/2/27
3670.69
2475.33
-32.57%
2005/6/30
2009/2/27
3679.89
2475.33
-32.73%
2005/7/29
2009/2/27
3818.16
2475.33
-35.17%
2005/8/31
2009/2/27
3782.70
2475.33
-34.56%
2005/9/30
2009/2/27
3815.12
2475.33
-35.12%
2005/10/31
2009/2/27
3752.53
2475.33
-34.04%
2005/11/30
2009/2/27
3904.16
2475.33
-36.60%
2005/12/30
2009/2/27
3906.35
2475.33
-36.63%
2006/1/31
2009/2/27
4012.97
2475.33
-38.32%
2006/2/28
2009/2/27
4017.05
2475.33
-38.38%
2006/3/31
2009/2/27
4068.57
2475.33
-39.16%
2006/4/28
2009/2/27
4122.20
2475.33
-39.95%
2006/5/31
2009/2/27
4000.22
2475.33
-38.12%
2006/6/30
2009/2/27
4004.71
2475.33
-38.19%
2006/7/31
2009/2/27
4018.08
2475.33
-38.40%
2006/8/31
2009/2/27
4115.15
2475.33
-39.85%
2006/9/29
2009/2/27
4219.91
2475.33
-41.34%
2006/10/31
2009/2/27
4364.12
2475.33
-43.28%
2006/11/30
2009/2/27
4450.72
2475.33
-44.38%
2006/12/29
2009/2/27
4504.77
2475.33
-45.05%
2007/1/31
2009/2/27
4586.41
2475.33
-46.03%
2007/2/28
2009/2/27
4502.53
2475.33
-45.02%
2007/3/30
2009/2/27
4551.23
2475.33
-45.61%
2007/4/30
2009/2/27
4746.32
2475.33
-47.85%
2007/5/31
2009/2/27
4912.53
2475.33
-49.61%
2007/6/29
2009/2/27
4830.39
2475.33
-48.76%
2007/7/31
2009/2/27
4680.88
2475.33
-47.12%
2007/8/31
2009/2/27
4751.96
2475.33
-47.91%
2007/9/28
2009/2/27
4932.33
2475.33
-49.81%
2007/10/31
2009/2/27
5015.45
2475.33
-50.65%
2007/11/30
2009/2/27
4803.74
2475.33
-48.47%
2007/12/31
2009/2/27
4776.32
2475.33
-48.17%
2008/1/31
2009/2/27
4486.44
2475.33
-44.83%
2008/2/29
2009/2/27
4346.96
2475.33
-43.06%
2008/3/31
2009/2/27
4330.95
2475.33
-42.85%
2008/4/30
2009/2/27
4545.32
2475.33
-45.54%
2008/5/30
2009/2/27
4617.85
2475.33
-46.40%
2008/6/30
2009/2/27
4241.46
2475.33
-41.64%
2008/7/31
2009/2/27
4192.95
2475.33
-40.96%
2008/8/29
2009/2/27
4250.38
2475.33
-41.76%
2008/9/30
2009/2/27
3860.51
2475.33
-35.88%

表八: MSCI UK196912月底所發生的超過30%的最大耗損歷史紀錄
投資起始日
發生最大耗損日
投資起始日指數水準
發生最大耗損日指數水準
報酬率
1969/12/31
1974/11/29
100.00
51.63
-48.37%
1970/1/30
1974/11/29
99.38
51.63
-48.05%
1970/2/27
1974/11/29
94.18
51.63
-45.18%
1970/3/31
1974/11/29
96.61
51.63
-46.56%
1970/4/30
1974/11/29
86.86
51.63
-40.56%
1970/5/29
1974/11/29
82.61
51.63
-37.50%
1970/6/30
1974/11/29
86.47
51.63
-40.29%
1970/7/31
1974/11/29
89.80
51.63
-42.50%
1970/8/31
1974/11/29
89.70
51.63
-42.44%
1970/9/30
1974/11/29
95.07
51.63
-45.69%
1970/10/30
1974/11/29
94.96
51.63
-45.63%
1970/11/30
1974/11/29
88.59
51.63
-41.72%
1970/12/31
1974/11/29
94.24
51.63
-45.21%
1971/1/29
1974/11/29
94.63
51.63
-45.44%
1971/2/26
1974/11/29
93.03
51.63
-44.50%
1971/3/31
1974/11/29
101.16
51.63
-48.96%
1971/4/30
1974/11/29
112.50
51.63
-54.11%
1971/5/31
1974/11/29
116.77
51.63
-55.79%
1971/6/30
1974/11/29
118.91
51.63
-56.58%
1971/7/30
1974/11/29
127.02
51.63
-59.35%
1971/8/31
1974/11/29
128.90
51.63
-59.95%
1971/9/30
1974/11/29
129.17
51.63
-60.03%
1971/10/29
1974/11/29
125.96
51.63
-59.01%
1971/11/30
1974/11/29
129.40
51.63
-60.10%
1971/12/31
1974/11/29
139.60
51.63
-63.02%
1972/1/31
1974/11/29
147.45
51.63
-64.99%
1972/2/29
1974/11/29
156.63
51.63
-67.04%
1972/3/31
1974/11/29
157.25
51.63
-67.17%
1972/4/28
1974/11/29
162.39
51.63
-68.21%
1972/5/31
1974/11/29
159.36
51.63
-67.60%
1972/6/30
1974/11/29
144.85
51.63
-64.36%
1972/7/31
1974/11/29
153.17
51.63
-66.29%
1972/8/31
1974/11/29
154.26
51.63
-66.53%
1972/9/29
1974/11/29
137.49
51.63
-62.45%
1972/10/31
1974/11/29
137.25
51.63
-62.38%
1972/11/30
1974/11/29
147.08
51.63
-64.90%
1972/12/29
1974/11/29
145.08
51.63
-64.41%
1973/1/31
1974/11/29
135.97
51.63
-62.03%
1973/2/28
1974/11/29
138.00
51.63
-62.59%
1973/3/30
1974/11/29
138.01
51.63
-62.59%
1973/4/30
1974/11/29
139.79
51.63
-63.07%
1973/5/31
1974/11/29
144.33
51.63
-64.23%
1973/6/29
1974/11/29
143.83
51.63
-64.10%
1973/7/31
1974/11/29
133.41
51.63
-61.30%
1973/8/31
1974/11/29
126.19
51.63
-59.09%
1973/9/28
1974/11/29
128.34
51.63
-59.77%
1973/10/31
1974/11/29
133.07
51.63
-61.20%
1973/11/30
1974/11/29
113.41
51.63
-54.48%
1973/12/31
1974/11/29
107.37
51.63
-51.92%
1974/1/31
1974/11/29
103.00
51.63
-49.88%
1974/2/28
1974/11/29
110.32
51.63
-53.20%
1974/3/29
1974/11/29
92.80
51.63
-44.37%
1974/4/30
1974/11/29
100.46
51.63
-48.61%
1974/5/31
1974/11/29
90.43
51.63
-42.91%
1974/6/28
1974/11/29
82.01
51.63
-37.05%
1974/7/31
1974/11/29
76.97
51.63
-32.92%
1975/4/30
1976/10/29
111.86
73.85
-33.98%
1975/5/30
1976/10/29
115.79
73.85
-36.22%
1975/8/29
1976/10/29
106.00
73.85
-30.33%
1975/10/31
1976/10/29
111.04
73.85
-33.49%
1975/11/28
1976/10/29
109.18
73.85
-32.36%
1975/12/31
1976/10/29
114.51
73.85
-35.51%
1976/1/30
1976/10/29
125.94
73.85
-41.36%
1976/2/27
1976/10/29
122.03
73.85
-39.48%
1976/3/31
1976/10/29
114.88
73.85
-35.72%
1976/4/30
1976/10/29
115.11
73.85
-35.85%
1980/10/31
1981/9/30
334.85
232.15
-30.67%
1998/2/27
2003/3/31
4151.05
2887.72
-30.43%
1998/3/31
2003/3/31
4370.30
2887.72
-33.92%
1998/4/30
2003/3/31
4379.81
2887.72
-34.07%
1998/5/29
2003/3/31
4218.13
2887.72
-31.54%
1998/6/30
2003/3/31
4283.10
2887.72
-32.58%
1998/7/31
2003/3/31
4197.39
2887.72
-31.20%
1998/11/30
2003/3/31
4227.30
2887.72
-31.69%
1998/12/31
2003/3/31
4360.88
2887.72
-33.78%
1999/1/29
2003/3/31
4315.79
2887.72
-33.09%
1999/2/26
2003/3/31
4411.60
2887.72
-34.54%
1999/3/31
2003/3/31
4549.16
2887.72
-36.52%
1999/4/30
2003/3/31
4725.19
2887.72
-38.89%
1999/5/31
2003/3/31
4463.56
2887.72
-35.30%
1999/6/30
2003/3/31
4475.28
2887.72
-35.47%
1999/7/30
2003/3/31
4543.13
2887.72
-36.44%
1999/8/31
2003/3/31
4525.54
2887.72
-36.19%
1999/9/30
2003/3/31
4452.51
2887.72
-35.14%
1999/10/29
2003/3/31
4582.63
2887.72
-36.99%
1999/11/30
2003/3/31
4639.19
2887.72
-37.75%
1999/12/31
2003/3/31
4903.82
2887.72
-41.11%
2000/1/31
2003/3/31
4454.72
2887.72
-35.18%
2000/2/29
2003/3/31
4314.07
2887.72
-33.06%
2000/3/31
2003/3/31
4631.98
2887.72
-37.66%
2000/4/28
2003/3/31
4438.77
2887.72
-34.94%
2000/5/31
2003/3/31
4288.90
2887.72
-32.67%
2000/6/30
2003/3/31
4328.87
2887.72
-33.29%
2000/7/31
2003/3/31
4358.27
2887.72
-33.74%
2000/8/31
2003/3/31
4404.55
2887.72
-34.44%
2000/9/29
2003/3/31
4283.91
2887.72
-32.59%
2000/10/31
2003/3/31
4314.24
2887.72
-33.07%
2000/12/29
2003/3/31
4338.29
2887.72
-33.44%
2001/1/31
2003/3/31
4266.84
2887.72
-32.32%
2004/11/30
2009/2/27
4833.76
3377.62
-30.12%
2004/12/31
2009/2/27
4990.93
3377.62
-32.32%
2005/1/31
2009/2/27
4955.20
3377.62
-31.84%
2005/2/28
2009/2/27
5195.69
3377.62
-34.99%
2005/3/31
2009/2/27
5058.49
3377.62
-33.23%
2005/4/29
2009/2/27
5005.29
3377.62
-32.52%
2005/5/31
2009/2/27
4957.90
3377.62
-31.87%
2005/6/30
2009/2/27
5036.76
3377.62
-32.94%
2005/7/29
2009/2/27
5102.94
3377.62
-33.81%
2005/8/31
2009/2/27
5255.77
3377.62
-35.73%
2005/9/30
2009/2/27
5348.65
3377.62
-36.85%
2005/10/31
2009/2/27
5185.77
3377.62
-34.87%
2005/11/30
2009/2/27
5209.15
3377.62
-35.16%
2005/12/30
2009/2/27
5359.20
3377.62
-36.98%
2006/1/31
2009/2/27
5678.62
3377.62
-40.52%
2006/2/28
2009/2/27
5641.92
3377.62
-40.13%
2006/3/31
2009/2/27
5803.71
3377.62
-41.80%
2006/4/28
2009/2/27
6148.04
3377.62
-45.06%
2006/5/31
2009/2/27
6029.86
3377.62
-43.99%
2006/6/30
2009/2/27
6090.13
3377.62
-44.54%
2006/7/31
2009/2/27
6229.63
3377.62
-45.78%
2006/8/31
2009/2/27
6381.20
3377.62
-47.07%
2006/9/29
2009/2/27
6349.20
3377.62
-46.80%
2006/10/31
2009/2/27
6666.20
3377.62
-49.33%
2006/11/30
2009/2/27
6829.16
3377.62
-50.54%
2006/12/29
2009/2/27
7002.59
3377.62
-51.77%
2007/1/31
2009/2/27
6991.66
3377.62
-51.69%
2007/2/28
2009/2/27
6982.17
3377.62
-51.62%
2007/3/30
2009/2/27
7213.82
3377.62
-53.18%
2007/4/30
2009/2/27
7533.51
3377.62
-55.17%
2007/5/31
2009/2/27
7662.13
3377.62
-55.92%
2007/6/29
2009/2/27
7761.58
3377.62
-56.48%
2007/7/31
2009/2/27
7567.21
3377.62
-55.36%
2007/8/31
2009/2/27
7504.03
3377.62
-54.99%
2007/9/28
2009/2/27
7775.07
3377.62
-56.56%
2007/10/31
2009/2/27
8243.39
3377.62
-59.03%
2007/11/30
2009/2/27
7800.15
3377.62
-56.70%
2007/12/31
2009/2/27
7589.99
3377.62
-55.50%
2008/1/31
2009/2/27
6912.17
3377.62
-51.14%
2008/2/29
2009/2/27
6940.99
3377.62
-51.34%
2008/3/31
2009/2/27
6791.80
3377.62
-50.27%
2008/4/30
2009/2/27
7231.36
3377.62
-53.29%
2008/5/30
2009/2/27
7188.59
3377.62
-53.01%
2008/6/30
2009/2/27
6738.12
3377.62
-49.87%
2008/7/31
2009/2/27
6461.85
3377.62
-47.73%
2008/8/29
2009/2/27
6253.98
3377.62
-45.99%
2008/9/30
2009/2/27
5325.43
3377.62
-36.58%